Global lubricant additive demand has recovered to roughly 4 million metric tons a year and is projected to reach 4.5 million tonnes by 2027, with the additive market itself projected to grow from around $15.4 billion in 2026 to $24.1 billion by 2036. Behind those numbers is a real shift in what kind of base oil the industry is actually building capacity for. (For the fundamentals of what Group I, II, and III actually mean, see our guide: Understanding Base Oil Groups.)
Mineral-derived base oil is still the volume leader — for now
Conventional mineral-derived base oil (broadly Group I and II) still accounts for the largest share of the global base oil segment — roughly 41% by some estimates. It remains the most cost-effective choice for a huge range of general-purpose applications, and isn't disappearing from the market.
But synthetic and higher-group oils are where the growth is
The clearest trend across both engine oils and greases right now is the same: synthetic and higher-group base oils are growing faster than conventional ones, specifically because they perform better under the conditions modern engines, machines, and EV drivetrains actually operate in — higher temperatures, longer drain/relubrication intervals, and tighter tolerances than older equipment needed.
Why this matters for sourcing, not just formulation
A buyer sourcing lubricants internationally shouldn't assume "base oil" means one fixed thing from one supplier to the next. Group I, II, and III oils have real, different performance ceilings — and a supplier that can procure across all groups per the actual specification a customer needs is offering something meaningfully different from one locked into a single base oil source.
What this means for buyers
As specifications keep pushing toward longer intervals and higher-temperature tolerance (see our piece on longer drain intervals), the base oil group behind a product matters more than it used to — ask what group your supplier is actually blending from, not just what viscosity grade is on the label.
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